U.S. Will Recover Lost Jobs In 2 Years -- If We're Lucky

jobs lost in recession

The stubbornly high unemployment rate has many critics pondering whether the U.S. can once again be the great job-creation engine it once was.

Though the nation has added an average 157,000 jobs each month since the recovery began in early 2010, the economy has to add 165,000 jobs each month for two years just to return to December 2007's level of employment, according to analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a non-partisan think-tank.

Further, CBPP says, the economy would have to generate even more jobs to reach full employment, "since the population and potential labor force are now larger."

To date, the economy has recovered just 4.8 million -- a bit more than half -- of the 8.7 million jobs lost from the start of recession in December 2007 to early 2010. As a result, CBPP says, nonfarm payrolls were 4 million fewer in December than they were at the start of the recession.

According to The Economist, at the pace of job growth recorded during the last two years, the economy won't regain its pre-recession level of employment, of about 138 million jobs, until March 2015. Still, that level of employment would equate to an unemployment rate of 6 to 6.6 percent, significantly below recent estimates by the Congressional Budget Office that put the nation's "full-employment" rate at 5.5 percent.

sluggish employment growth

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When the unemployment rate drops drastically then I will believe in the new job counts. At some time one has to displace the other. Until then these are just numbers thrown out there to possibly make us feel better.

January 17 2013 at 11:08 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

First step would be to stop manipulating the Unemployment number by holding the Civilian labor force level flat. Since 2008 the CLF has been artificially held flat by manipulating the participation ratio. You can see this for your self by downloading the BLS data for the past 20 years and then comparing the slope of the CLF numbers with the slope of population growth. The ONLY way the participation rate could be held flat is if a large number of US laborers were incarcerated or died. We are still importing 1 million legal immigrants a year, the Gimmick has just injected 1.8 million illegal aliens into the work force via the DACA memo and looks to inject20 million more with amnesty. On top of that we are still graduating workers from college and have 20 million unemployed and/or underemployed US workers.

Mendacity abounds. Two years is a wildly optimistic scenario that has no grounding in reality.

January 17 2013 at 10:48 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

Before you can actually attempt to bring back the jobs, you first got to find out WHY they left in the first place. Very few want to admit that the moves to cut overhead, and increase profits have driven must of the jobs away that left. Until that ideology is changed, it's an uphill battle to bring those jobs back to the US. It’s like trying to climb a 12 rung ladder, with rungs 3 & 4 missing. How do you expect to get from rung 2 to rung 5?

January 17 2013 at 10:11 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

I'd say after 4 years, when this bozo is gone.

January 17 2013 at 9:23 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

"We've went from a manufacturing.. . ." ??????????? Just shows your ignorance. You can't even use good grammar. Everything is Obama's fault. Why are you people so negative? I choose to believe it will get better. Obama is doing the best he can in spite of this stupid Congress.

January 17 2013 at 9:23 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

Ofcourse that's what Obama-loving HP would say. Anyone with a brain really knows it'll never be the same. Just like home prices will never again be the same as they were before the Crash.
We've went from a manufacturing-based country to a 7-11 & McDonalds country.

January 17 2013 at 9:07 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

If we do the right thing and deport the illegals, we'd have the jobs back in two MINUTES.

January 17 2013 at 8:19 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

What they arent telling you is the country lost middle income jobs and they are being replaced by low income jobs. Mcjobs... Hope everyone is Mchappy with Obama!

January 17 2013 at 8:16 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

Not with the dream act in effect.The jobs may return but they will be filled by illegals.Thanks Obama

January 17 2013 at 7:41 AM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply


January 17 2013 at 6:27 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

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